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The
study examines the various employment issues resulting
from changing economic structure arising from the
establishment of the General Agreement on Trade in
Services (GATS). It presents four (4) empirical models in
estimating the employment impact of liberalizing trade in
services. These
are: (1) computable gravity equilibrium (CGE) model; (2)
input-output (IO) model; (3) gravity model; and (4)
expanded version of gravity model.
The
study proposes the adoption of the expanded version of the
gravity model because of the following contentions: (1)
lowering transaction costs raises international trade
volume; (2) excluding institutional variables obscures a
negative relation between income per capita and the share
of income spent on traded goods; (3) institutional
differences can generate “a disproportionately high
volume of trade among high income countries;” and 4)
service industries in the Philippines are labor intensive
relative to other industries and the economy in general,
hence making liberalization beneficial to employment.
The
study notes that a policy of trade liberalization in the
services sector could explicitly increase employment.
However, the primary concern is how to measure its
exact impact on employment, and limiting it to sub-sectors
where the
Philippines
has prior commitments. For instance, the
telecommunication, financial, tourism and travel-related,
and the transport services are committed in GATS, while
the business and construction services are committed under
the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services (AFAS).
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